I make some estimations of the values of the selectable rewards for upcoming The Misty Valley and Abyssal Expedition events. Those events require some choices from you, and I try to estimate, what rewards are better.
Important note: These estimations are subjective. They reveal only my point of view on fair value of the different items, which can be significantly different from the default cost in the shop. Usually it’s minimal available cost of the item in the game, which is not in deficit. True value of rewards also depends on your own progress in Campaign and can differs from presented in the table. Below I try to explain, why I choose these numbers, but you should be smart anyway and make you choice according to current state of your account.
Green color – item with the best value. You are right, when take this.
Yellow color – mediocre value of the item. You can take it, if you really need this thing, but there are better choices.
Red color – noob trap. This item has significantly worse ratio in comparison with others.
Explanation of the values
Gold to Diamond rate is tricky thing. You can buy some 24h gold chests with spending of 48 diamonds (it gives me 10700 gold per diamond, for example), but you can’t convert gold back. It is really unfair ratio and I can’t advice to anybody to buy such chests. The economics of this game is designed in such way, that your income of gold is going mostly from guild bosses and it is approximately two times larger than diamonds income. The fair ratio is around 20000 gold per diamond (at that ratio gold and diamond incomes become comparable) and I use it for estimates below. Also I decrease 2x times the value of the every item which is available for guild coins (Like T1/T2 stones, which you never would like to buy by diamonds).
24h Gold chest costs 48 diamonds. Bad ratio, but you haven’t any other options to take more gold if you need it.
24h Exp chest costs 192 diamonds. In that case 8h Exp chest costs 64 diamonds
According 8h Dust chest I assume that it has same cost with Exp chest. Developers make them equal during the last events. Also previously I calculated the cost of the dust chest from the gold offer in the shop, and get almost the same result: https://www.reddit.com/r/afkarena/comments/h8s61d/value_of_the_rewards_in_islands_event/ So it is reasonable assumption.
The value of blue shards was estimated from the effective diamond cost of blue hero from tavern and from the value of bounty board: as 60 blue shards = 240 diamonds (The both estimates give approximately the same value). More details in my old post about bounty board calculator. https://www.reddit.com/r/afkarena/comments/ftfylw/statistic_of_lvl8_bounty_board_bounty_board/
The value of purple shards is estimated as x9 packs of blue shards. Purple shards doesn’t affected by your wishlist and very often gives you just food heroes. The cost of 5x purple stone in the shop is inconsistent for consideration, because that offer is too good to be true. You should buy 5 shard for 90 diamonds every time, when they appear, and they will always stay in deficit. Then the more realistic value is just 240 diamonds x 9.
T1 and T2 stones. T1 stone costs 2946 in store and 33879 guild coins and T2 stome costs 3270 diamonds or 40875 guild coins. The main channel of their availability is guild shop, and you almost never should buy them with diamonds in the shop. So I decrease their default value two times. It provides reasonable rates, at which I would think about buying them for diamonds.
Guild Coins are recalculated through the value of T2 stone, taking into account assumption above: 30000/40875*3270/2 = 1200 diamonds
1 Common scroll costs 270 diamonds.
The cost of Twisted Essence is estimated from the donate shop. Here 10 Twisted Essence are equal to 1 Primordial Emblem with default cost for diamonds (without discounts and gold deals) around 50 diamonds per unit. So the 5 diamonds per Twisted Essence is reasonable rate. Note, that you can’t buy Twisted Essence per gold, and the offer in barracks is pretty bad, so here I operate with default cost of item.
The main source of the Primordial Emblems is 30 Emblems offer in the shop. Recalculation gives you estimation 1 Primordial Emblem = 24 diamonds. Also it proves estimation, that gold offer is two times better then default diamond cost of the item.
For Amplifying and Faction emblems I use the cost of the Roamer in Lab. Recently, amplifying emblems available for gold appear in the shop too rare, and they are in the significant deficit. You would like buy them every time, when gold offer appears in the shop. So the effective cost of 1 Amplifying emblem is 62,4 diamonds and 1 Faction emblems costs 158,4 diamonds.
Poe coins value calculation is also slightly tricky. The gold offer in the shop is also auto-buy. You can buy additional Poe coins, and the best way to do it is to refresh the shop by 100 diamonds and buy Poe coins per gold again. For 250 additional Poe coins you spend 1.125m gold +100 diamonds, which provides ratio 1 Poe coin = 0.625 diamonds. I use this ratio for calculation. To be honest real ratio of this method is even lower, because you also use the same refresh to buy purple stones, gold emblems and dust. Also it should be mentioned, that some players give more importance to furniture, and refreshes shop 2x time everyday to buy Poe coins. For them, the best cost of the additional Poe coins is going from Roamer lab shop with ratio 480 diamonds per 600 coins (0.8 diamonds per Poe coin). In my opinion it is better to spend diamonds on 4x Fast Rewards but you should take this option into account.
Found on r/AfkArena here.
Note: 100 poe coins may be more worth than 60 purple stones and 5 scrolls if you have large numbers of ascended heroes
Credits to u/Artrizet